Ethereum Market Report: Ether Falls to Monthly Low
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Data as of 18:00 PDT April 11 2016 except as noted.
Ether is DOWN -1.63% on the day, DOWN -2.68% on the week and DOWN -36.75% on the month*:
*price reference: 0.02004 as of 16:06 PDT April 11 2016 @Gatecoin.
The Poloniex chart below shows one month in four hour candlesticks. After the six day price rise of late March and early April, we saw a price reversal which has trended bearish to this day.
The previous month high of 0.0372 is unchanged. The new month low was recently set at 0.0176. While the new low represents a large change factor of 0.0196 BTC, the chart clearly shows it is within a well defined bearish trend. This trend sees a gradually easing price:
One notable aspect is the April 10 volume of 1,842,367 ether. You’d have to go back to March 18 2016 to see comparable volumes. Interestingly the March 18 volume had a 24 hour price range of 0.00508 BTC. The comparable April 10 volume saw a 24 hour price range of 0.00390 BTC. The erosion of price support gave way to the price fall and to a smaller rebound as well.
@KrakenFX’s volume on this chart is 17.66% of the total 24 hour ETHBTC volume.
The @BittrexExchange chart below is a three day snapshot:
Here we zero in on the high volume period where over 1.84 million ether changed hands. While the rebound is strong it isn’t even close to March 18. The selling continues after small price gains.
The daily range of prices has been narrowing over the last two weeks with ever smaller daily price ranges – up to the dump illustrated above. With the lower prices currently hovering around 0.020 one can see in the Bittrex 24H high and low the daily range is 0.00137661. At the time of writing this converts to US$ 00.58 cents daily range per ether.
BNC price converter
It’s handy and just a click away: BNC price converter:
Currency & coin converter courtesy @BraveNewCoin
Range: 00839 BTC
Gatecoin two week chart
Looking at the @gatecoin two week chart we see recent resistance and support in green. The 0.019 support level has been tested several times today – and has dropped further once:
The price has not seen 0.018 since the heady days of early March 03 2016. We’ve seen a bear trend since the end of March. That’s eleven days. This trend also converges with a weak one day uptrend near the 0.021 level.
Resistance has seen little testing, fleetingly at 0.0206. We see a monthly low of 0.0176. Support is seen at 0.019 multiple times.
Buyer confidence has been steadily eroded. Seller confidence has been rewarded.
The absence of a good rebound after the high volume of April 10 is not good news for the bulls. The low probability outcome is for a temporary respite near 0.019 which could spike to the resistance level of 0.0206. If the price finds enough buyers to significantly surpass the .026 mark then we could see a turnaround to higher prices. This is considered a low probability outcome.
This is a bear market which could continue its near half month bearish trend. The little resistance seen today – without the big rebound we saw in March – suggests there are not enough ether buyers to stem or break the bearish trend. The high probability outcome is for the bear market to continue.
Poloniex All time chart
The all time Poloniex chart below may help understand where the absolute bottom may be in a very bearish scenario:
As indicated in the sliding red candlesticks the price has come down a lot – to 0.019 BTC – from the all time high of 0.0372. The question is how much more could the price drop?
Fuel only price?
The horizontal crosshair is moused over a rough average price of 0.0025. This was a relatively stable price of ether for some months. If there is extremely adverse news, and buyer confidence is completely eroded, then it is possible we could see a return to the “fuel” price of ether. This is the price ether traded at as a fuel for ethereum applications prior to the speculative market we are in today.
Should the price revert to that lower fuel only benchmark then the price could reasonably be expected to stabilize around 0.0025 BTC.
However more likely is a price somewhere in between the current price and 0.0025. The 0.014 level of February 27 2016 saw support on the way up. This could very well be mirrored on the way down. The newness of the ether digital asset and the absence of market data for extended ether bear trends makes predicting the future ether price a challenging task.
These are subjective, conservative estimates of ETH market sentiment:
The sell down to 0.0176 has seen both buyer and seller depth flatten and decrease:
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Gold 24 hour spot
Real-time:01:47:21 ET Change:-3.50(-0.28%)
Data courtesy kitco.com
Ether 24 hour spot
Kraken US$ 8.14
Bitfinex US$ 8.11
Poloniex US$ 8.11
Data courtesy EthereumWisdom
$ETHBTC last price
Get an instant mobile friendly ether last price:
Ether is DOWN -1.63% on the day, DOWN -2.68% on the week and DOWN -36.75% on the month. ETHBTC had multiple support at 0.019 and resistance at 0.0206. The last price is near a monthly low. The ten day trend line is BEARISH.
Past history is not an indicator of future performance. For the legal disclaimer read here.